Scenario-based earthquake risk assessment for Bucharest, Romania

Abstract

In this study, a seismic risk analysis for Bucharest (Romania) is performed using six intermediate-depth Vrancea earthquake scenarios, defined as a function of magnitude, focal depth and source-to-site distance. For each scenario, 2000 individual ground motion simulations for Bucharest are considered. The simulations are performed using a recently derived spatial correlation model for Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic events. Subsequently, for each individual earthquake scenario, an estimation of the damage, losses and casualties is obtained. Moreover, a community resilience metrics, defined in terms of recovery of the housing capacity is evaluated using a model available in the literature. Finally, based on the recent experience of Italian earthquakes, an estimation of the number of operators and of the number of tents necessary after an earthquake is provided.