Scenario approach to determination of enterprise development directions

Abstract

The article considers the aspects of the development strategy formation for mechanical engineering enterprises. The necessity to anticipate the development of economic processes in the business environment of enterprises is caused by the increasing uncertainty of external environment, which largely determined the lack of competitiveness of industrial enterprises.The study identified the need for scenario approach for the analysis of economic processes of industrial development, which allows (with a certain level of probability) to identify possible trends and interconnections of macroeconomic factors forming the business environment of enterprises.Using scenario approach the author identifies two key uncertainties, which form the development trends of external environment, risks and opportunities from the external environment and influence on the future development of the enterprises of mechanical engineering. The author identifies four scenarios for the development of environment of functioning of industrial enterprises; taking into account these four scenarios will determine the characteristics and trends of strategic decisions in the field of enterprises’ management.