Scenario Analysis on CO2-equivalent Emissions from Alternative Mobile Air Conditioning Refrigerants in China

Abstract

Since 1995, R134a has been regarded as an ideal substitute for CFC-12 and gradually conquers mobile air conditioning (MAC) refrigerant market. However, R134a will certainly be replaced for its obvious shortcomings. In this paper, we used a systematic approach to evaluate the CO2-equivalent emissions when R134a, R152a, R1234yf and R744 are used as refrigerant in MAC systems, integrating a GDP-dependent Gompertz model and CO2-equivalent emissions of each type of refrigerant during MAC systems operate. Supposed that R134a still dominates as refrigerant in MAC systems, refrigerant CO2-equivalent emissions will increase by 66.43% and 88.81% in 2030 and 2050, respectively, compared with that in 2020, reaching 46.58 million tons and 52.84 million tons. Substitution from R134a to R152a, R1234yf and R744 will obviously reduce emissions in the future. CO2-equivalent emissions will only account for 8.74%, 0.28% and 0.07% of that in the base scenario if R152a, R1234yf and R744 are used in MAC systems, respectively. Besides, emissions can be further reduced if electric vehicles adopt R744 as refrigerant.