Scenario analysis on CO2 emission reductions in hinterland transport of Japan through intermodal logistics network simulation

Abstract

Because transport in the port hinterlands heavily depends on roads with negative externalities, much social interest has been in modal shifts (MSs) to rail and shipping with lower environmental impact. Currently, leading industry sectors to ambitiously embrace technological innovations to decarbonize—consequently, in line with these changes, the significance of MSs should change; however, no previous studies have comprehensively presented the overall CO2 emissions and transport mode shares for future regional cargo transport. This paper presents a scenario analysis of CO2 emission reductions in the Japanese domestic hinterland of international maritime container transport based on future scenarios of technological innovation and change in shipper behavior. The simulation results using the global logistics intermodal network simulation model showed that up to 87% CO2 reduction is possible, and the primary driver for this is technological innovation. Moreover, the significance of MSs fluctuates depending on the advancement of technological innovation, suggesting that MSs hold a degree of import as a decarbonization measure during the transitional phase toward carbon neutrality (CN) as technological innovation advances. The results of this study, which fluctuated considerably by scenario and timing, have policy implications with respect to the path to be followed toward CN, including whether to promote MSs.