Abstract
This study, using Chongqing City of China as an example, predicts the future motor vehicle population using the Gompertz Model and the motorcycle population using the piecewise regression model, and predicts and analyzes fuel consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of motor vehicles from 2016 to 2035 based on the bottom-up method under different scenarios of improving the fuel economy of conventional vehicles, promoting alternative fuel vehicles, and the mixed policy of the above two policy options. The results indicate that the total population of motor vehicles in Chongqing will increase from 4.61 million in 2015 to 10.15 million in 2035. In the business-as-usual scenario, the road-transportation energy demand in Chongqing will keep increasing from 2015 and will peak in 2030, before it begins to decline by 2035. The trends for the tank to wheel (TTW) and well to wheel (WTW) GHG emissions are similar to that of energy demand. The WTW GHG emissions will increase from 24.9 Mt CO2e in 2016 to 50.5 Mt CO2e in 2030 and will then gradually decline to 48.9 Mt CO2e in 2035. Under the policy scenarios of improving fuel economy of conventional fuel passenger cars, promoting alternative fuel vehicles, and their mixed policy, direct energy consumption and TTW and WTW GHG emissions from 2016 to 2035 will be reduced to different levels. It is also found that the two types of policies have a hedging effect on the direct energy-consumption saving, TTW, and WTW GHG emission reductions. Sensitivity analysis of key parameters and policy settings is conducted to investigate the impact of their changes on the vehicle population projection, direct energy demand, and WTW GHG emissions. Some policy implications are suggested to provide reference for the formulation and adjustment of Chongqing’s, or even China’s, low-carbon road transportation policies in the future based on the analysis results.
Highlights
In 2015, the transportation sector accounted for 64.7% of global oil consumption, with road transportation accounting for 49.7% of this [1]
The greenhouse gas (GHG) emission-reduction policies of the road-transportation department can be divided into four types according to the key factors that influence the GHG emissions from vehicles: The vehicle population, fuel economy, fuel type, and kilometers travelled by vehicles (VKT)
The rapid increase in the vehicle population can be attributed to the growth potential of private cars (PCs) and light-duty buses (LDBs)
Summary
In 2015, the transportation sector accounted for 64.7% of global oil consumption, with road transportation accounting for 49.7% of this [1]. To effectively control the energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from road transportation, policy makers of nations and cities around the world have developed a series of integrated policy options that include mandatory standards and market-based fiscal policies with economic incentives. The first emission-reduction policy type involves limiting the number of motor vehicles through implementing vehicle purchase taxes [2] and vehicle purchases via a lottery or auction of car license plates [3,4]. The last emission-reduction policy aims at controlling the average annual VKT of passenger cars and involves prioritizing the development of public transit systems and restricting vehicle use via plate number and public transport subsidy policies [6,11]. Some economic policies to reduce vehicle-use intensity (e.g., increasing parking fees and charging congestion fees in urban centers [12,13]) belong to the fourth type of emission-reduction policy and they have already been implemented in some cities around the world and, yet, are currently only under discussion in China
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