Scenario analysis of the socioeconomic impacts of achieving zero-carbon energy by 2030

Abstract

This study uses scenario analysis to assess the socioeconomic impacts of achieving zero-carbon energy by 2030. Three scenarios are developed: 1) business as usual; 2) accelerated deployment of renewable energy and electric vehicles; and 3) scenario 2 plus comprehensive energy efficiency improvements. Quantitative models are used to evaluate the impacts on employment, productivity, consumer costs, inequality and energy security under each scenario. The results show that scenario 3, with the most ambitious decarbonization and efficiency measures, can generate the most jobs (2.1 million more than business as usual) and the lowest consumer costs (12% reduction). However, it may also lead to a small productivity loss (1.2% lower than business as usual) due to higher costs of new technologies. Income and health inequality are projected to decrease across all scenarios due to improved energy access and reduced fuel poverty. Energy security is expected to improve significantly in scenarios 2 and 3 due to reduced oil dependence. This study provides an analytical framework to assess the integrated socioeconomic impacts of zero-carbon transitions under uncertainty. The scenarios and findings can inform policymaking by highlighting the opportunities and challenges around the low-carbon transition, enabling decision makers to maximize benefits and minimize negative consequences.