Scenario Analysis of the Mobile Voice Services Market

Abstract

Internet services shake the dynamics of the mobile industry. This paper studies the future of mobile voice with a scenario analysis method. A group of industry experts is interviewed to obtain a set of variables reflecting the uncertainties of the mobile voice market. These variables are used in describing the future evolution of mobile voice. With iterative interviews the two most important variables (mobile market structure and access mode in multi-radio networks) are defined, and four industry scenarios introduced. The mobile industry is found to be on a verge of horisontalization. The structural form of the market determines how mobile voice services are deployed in the future. The mobile industry is gradually moving towards the Internet. In this evolution, alternative wireless technologies are seen as the main source of disruption, with either one-operator or multi-operator terminal support. Also the regulation of mobile networks and services is found to play a significant role. Together the dominant market form (horizontal or vertical orientation) and techno-economic context (single-operator or multi-operator model) determine whether incumbent operators will retain strong position in the future.