Abstract
Pakistan’s dependence on energy imports, inefficient power generation and distribution, and lack of planned investment have made the country’s economy vulnerable. Low carbon and resilient climate development in Pakistan can help to ensure climate action and reduce the chronic energy deficit ailing the country’s economy, society, and environment. This study focuses on developing and applying an integrated energy supply-demand modeling framework based on a combination of microeconomics and system integration theories, which can be used to address policies that could dramatically change the future course of Pakistan toward a low emission energy system. The methodology involves medium-term forecasting of energy demand using an integration of top-down and bottom-up modeling approaches. The demand-side model is interlinked with a bottom-up technology assessment supply model. The objective of the supply-side model is to identify the optimal combination of resources and technologies, subject to satisfying technical, institutional, environmental, and economic constraints, using the cost minimization approach. The proposed integrated model is applied to enable a complete perspective to achieve overall reductions in energy consumption and generation and better analyze the effects of different scenarios on both energy demand and supply sides in Pakistan. The results revealed that, in the baseline case, the energy demand is expected to increase from 8.70 Mtoe [106.7 TWh] to 24.19 Mtoe [297.2 TWh] with an annual average growth rate of 6.60%. Increasing the share of renewable energy power generation by 2030 can help to reduce emissions by 24%, which is accompanied by a 13% increase in the total cost of power generation.
Highlights
This study aimed to introduce a comprehensive and integrated energy model for Pakistan to project energy demand and optimize the supply mix under different scenario options
The research emphasized developing an integrated energy modeling framework in order to have a comprehensive analysis of the energy sector in Pakistan, which may lead to effective policy and decision-making
Through an analysis of energy supply and demand and carbon emission data for the scenarios, it is obvious that energy demand will continue to grow up to 2030, resulting from enhanced lifestyles, urbanization, and economic activities in Pakistan
Summary
Through its CO2 emissions in generation and consumption processes, the energy sector is the leading contributor to greenhouse gases (GHGs). Convention on Climate Change), countries signed the Paris Agreement and pledged to reduce their GHG emissions through employing low carbon-based energy generation and efficient consumption [1]. Sustainable development is about promoting resource and energy efficiency, sustainable infrastructure, and providing access to basic services, green and decent jobs, and a better quality of life for all. It is not just an environmental issue; it is about maintaining the natural capital and productivity and capacity of our planet to meet human needs and sustain economic activities.
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