Scenario Analysis of Energy-Related CO2 Emissions from Current Policies: A Case Study of Guangdong Province

Abstract

Regional carbon management is essential for China to achieve the carbon reduction target. Studying the emission peak time and volume for Guangdong Province, which is the largest economic province with rapid carbon growth, is important for developing regions to formulate low-carbon policies. In this study, an end-use energy-based emission model integrating the guidelines for provincial CO2 emission peaking action plans and updated policies was developed to study the regional energy-related peaking time and emission scale. Taking Guangdong as a case, multiple scenarios were designed and analyzed considering factors of economic development, energy intensity, and structure. The results show that the energy-related CO2 cannot reach its peak by 2030 without control, even under low economic growth scenarios. Specifically, under high economic growth scenarios, the carbon peak can only be addressed by 2030 at around 0.65 Gt in the context of a strong transformation in energy structure as well as improvement in energy efficiency. Under medium and low economic scenarios, energy-related CO2 emissions will reach a plateau before 2030 between 0.61 and 0.64 Gt by implementing the medium and strengthening optimization of energy structure. Thus, effective measures are necessary for Guangdong’s peak target in both energy efficiency improvement and energy structure optimization. At last, this study puts forward policy recommendations for the low-carbon pathway of Guangdong Province, which can provide an experience for other regions in understanding their carbon emission trajectories and help policymakers enact appropriate actions.