Scenario Analysis of Emergency in Civil Aviation Airports Based on the Pressure- State-Response Model and Bayesian Network

Abstract

The emergency response capability of civil aviation airports is the core to ensure the efficient handling of civil aviation emergencies. The dynamic characterization of the multi-scenario evolution paths of emergencies in civil aviation airports and quantitative targeted evaluation have become the study foci urgently needed to be solved by the current academic circles and airport departments for emergency management. To clarify the emergency mechanism, evolution mechanism, and multi-scenario evolution paths, this study first constructed the pressure-state-response (PSR) network expression of emergency scenario evolution in civil aviation airports. Then, the evolution path of airport emergency scenarios and the probability of different evolution scenarios were evaluated on the basis of the PSR model and Bayesian network (BN). Lastly, the specific process of the analysis method for emergency scenarios based on PSR and BN was demonstrated in consideration of emergency rescue drills in civil aviation airports as example. Results show that different emergency response measures are adopted for the critical scenarios of emergencies, and the development and evolution paths of emergency scenarios completely differ. The PSR-BN model for emergency scenario analysis can realize the reasoning process of combining the qualitative and quantitative scenarios of the dynamic evolution of civil aviation emergencies. It can comprehensively and systematically analyse the evolution of emergency scenarios in civil aviation airports, prove the feasibility and effectiveness of the analysis method, and effectively compensate for the shortcomings in the static analysis of emergency events. The model provides reference for the emergency analysis of civil aviation airports.