Scenario Analysis of CO2 Reduction Potentials from a Carbon Neutral Perspective

Abstract

As a major emitter of CO2, China needs to take responsibility for slowing down global warming. In this paper, the potential carbon emission intensity of provinces is firstly calculated using the non-radial directional distance function under the group- and meta-frontier techniques, and then six scenarios based on two factors (economic development and carbon intensity) are set up to estimate the emission reduction potential of China and each province. Considering the goal of carbon neutrality, the calculation of CO2 emission reduction potential quantifies the amount of emissions that can be reduced and the amount of emissions that should be balanced. Additionally, the degree of difficulty in achieving abatement potential is also calculated. The findings are as follows: First, assuming that the economic growth rate is reduced to 4.4% (achieving the second “100-year goal”) and each province adopts the most advanced low-carbon technologies, China could reduce carbon emissions by 5970.56 Mt compared to 2019 levels. To achieve net-zero emissions, the remaining 3824.2 Mt of carbon emissions should be removed by carbon reduction technologies. Second, the effect of slowing down economic growth and decreasing carbon intensity varies greatly among provinces. Hebei and Shandong should be prioritized as they have the greatest potential for emission reductions under both scenarios. Third, it is more difficult for Beijing, Shanghai, Hubei, Hunan, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Chongqing, and Sichuan to achieve the abatement potential and they require more effort to reduce the same amount of carbon emissions compared to other provinces. The study provides a reference for achieving carbon neutrality and helps provinces to develop differentiated emission reduction strategies.