Scenario Analysis of Changes in the Food Supply Chain

Abstract

The aim of this study is to identify possible alternative scenarios in food production and consumption that would lead to a more balanced supply of locally produced food and a reduction in the environmental impact of agricultural production. The analysis of food consumption and agricultural land distribution in Slovenia showed that a significantly larger proportion of land area is used for food production for animals than for humans. Several potential changes in the distribution of agricultural land, in milk consumption and production, in the use of fertilizers and in people's eating habits towards lower consumption of red meat were identified. Analysis of the scenarios showed the potential to increase food self-sufficiency by 15 %, reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 35 %, and reduce nitrogen intake by 30 % by 2050. Reducing red meat consumption could shift intensive feed-based livestock production to grass-based production and produce more plant-based food for humans. This could increase the amount of local food and make food production less harmful to the environment. Preliminary research has shown that there are several influencing factors in the food supply chain that have conflicting effects on key food supply parameters and environmental indicators. It is therefore necessary to move towards a systematic multi-criteria optimization of the food supply chain in order to achieve the objectives of the European and national strategies on agriculture and climate change.