Abstract
The objective of this paper is to present alternative land development scenarios for the sustainability impact assessment of transport-land-use relationship in the Leipzig-Halle Region. Using the MOLAND Model that was applied to a declining urban region for the first time, two different land-use scenarios were developed representing a baseline <em>dispersed</em> development and an alternative <em>compact</em> development case. The assessment of land-use-transport relationships is carried out incorporating the use of social, economic and environmental indicators. The impacts and indicators were specified and evaluated subject to a quantitative and qualitative assessment. The findings imply that a compact development scenario is preferable over dispersed development scenario in terms of potential quantitative data on the benefits to the environment and society. In contrast, dispersed development in the baseline case indicates the costs of such development exceed the benefits. The results of this type of scenario analysis provide an objective evidence basis in policy evaluation and decisions regarding future urban developments. This research was developed from several scenarios created with the key stakeholders of the Leipzig-Halle Region from research originally conducted as part of the PLUREL Project in 2012 and updated in 2016. It aims at contributing to literature by providing a sustainability assessment framework for rapid rail infrastructure provision that incorporates socio-economic and environmental impact assessment of alternative future urban form scenarios into the analysis. In addition, due to MOLAND features, it provides the opportunity for the sustainability impact assessment of different forms of urban development linked with transport infrastructure provision in the Region and compare the findings with other case study areas in Europe and internationally.
Highlights
The rapid growth of peri-urban areas in many of the metropolitan centres in Europe has resulted in dispersed or scattered type of developments in contrast to the historical forms of more compact structures
This study aims to fill this gap by focusing on a case study of Leipzig-Halle Region for the sustainability impact assessment of transport-land-use relationship through application of scenario analysis approach
This paper examined the sustainability implications of transportation and land-use relationship through focusing on the key linkages and impacts of transportation infrastructure investments on land development trends in the Leipzig-Halle Region
Summary
The rapid growth of peri-urban areas in many of the metropolitan centres in Europe has resulted in dispersed or scattered type of developments in contrast to the historical forms of more compact structures. Automobile dependence, air pollution, social segregation, degradation of scarce land resources and decreasing quality of life are often cited as some of the most important problems faced by many of the large urban metropolitan centres (United Nations Human Settlements Programme [UNHabitat], 2013). The UN promotes a specific goal to make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable. This international policy aspiration is to promote urban consolidation and intensification and avoid the negative externalities of dispersed or sprawl type patterns of development and the resulting associated car dependency. The lack of integration of transport and land-use planning makes the realisation of such goals severely problematic and the debate continues as to whether land-use policies in isolation can be effective in influencing development and transport use patterns
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