Scenario analysis and a logic model of public education in Ohio

Abstract

PurposeThis case recounts how an expert scenario consultant and a team of managers at a government agency used proprietary technology to define a set of alternate futures; it describes how this scenario analysis provided a framework for understanding the existence of interlocking relationships – the logic model – among factors that determine desirable future outcomes.Design/methodology/approachAs a tool for forecasting and strategic planning, Battelle employs a method called interactive future simulations (IFS) that uses expert judgment, trend analysis, and cross‐impact analysis for generating probabilistic alternative futures (scenarios). The tool has been used both for Battelle's own business strategy analysis and for fee‐for‐service projects for some 55 clients in North America, Europe, and Japan.FindingsThe logic model showed that, higher achievement depends primarily on only two clusters of descriptors: students receiving high quality instruction aligned with academic content standards and students having the right conditions and motivation for learning.Research limitations/implicationsHaving completed the first generation of the logic model through the exercise of cross‐impact analysis, the Ohio Department of Education project team will revisit the scenarios and give them increased attention. A revised logic model will be constructed in 2005.Practical implicationsThis article introduces the logic model as a potentially valuable new strategic management tool.Originality/valueManagers in for‐profit and nonprofit organization can get a rare inside look at the process and potential of scenario analysis and the development of a logic model.