Scenario analyses to reach smart sustainability in Tehran

Abstract

The 21st century presents significant challenges to humanity, encompassing rapid urbanization, population expansion, as well as socio-economic, physical, and environmental stressors. In order to establish an ideal equilibrium between economic advancement and environmental preservation within contemporary and prospective urban areas, the Smart Sustainable City (SCC) approach becomes imperative. In this paper, our objective is to introduce the concept of the SCC and to examine potential scenarios that facilitate the realization of such an approach. Tehran, the capital of Iran, has encountered numerous challenges akin to those mentioned over the past fifty years, rendering it a pertinent case study for our investigative pursuits. Structural analysis tool (MICMAC) in this research as a method for futures studies used to exposes how a variable is influenced by and reliant on other variables by analyzing all the interactions within the city system. This paper suggests novel approach to MICMAC which promotes driving forces to scenarios. This helps in particular with SSC implementation and shows the consequences of not developing driving forces for the system by scenarios. Hence, the suggested approach might also be regarded as a novel addition to the field of futures studies. For this purpose, we evaluated the various factors that were most important for environmental sustainability and SSC implementation in Tehran. The results of this study indicate that Network-Based Services Providers, Application of Smart Social Services, Employing Smart Managers and Electronic backup management system by ICT Tools are driving forces which indicates the crucial influence of them in the implementation of SSC in Tehran. These driving forces were subsequently incorporated in three scenarios for 2030 being Smart Sustainable Tehran, Unregulated Tehran and Analog and Depleting Tehran.