Scaling Up to Phase Down: Financing Energy Transitions in the Power Sector

Abstract

The Scaling Up to Phase Down approach is a contribution by the World Bank to the ongoing debate on how to accelerate energy transition in low- and middle-income countries (LICs and MICs)—as called for by the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change—while simultaneously widening access to the reliable and affordable energy that underpins countries’ development goals. The approach is intended to be a bridge between the challenges facing World Bank clients who are seeking to transition their power sectors and the development partners supporting their efforts. The energy transition is the process of shifting the global energy system away from the consumption of fossil fuels and toward low-carbon technologies in order to support international goals of limiting climate change. In the next decade, much of this transition will first occur in the power sector because solutions using newer technologies have the potential to become cost competitive with appropriate interventions, and also because the power sector is a powerful pathway for decarbonizing other sectors—most notably transport, buildings, and industry. The power sector is therefore the focus of this report. The power sector transition will advance energy efficiency and decarbonize the energy supply by expanding renewable energy and strengthening electricity networks in order to integrate renewable energy, demand-side management, and end-use electrification. In LICs and MICs, this transition aims to meet the rapidly growing demand for energy in a way that supports inclusive development consistent with net-zero global emissions by mid-century, and builds resilience to the changing climate. A just transition in the power sector should address the needs of workers and communities who are affected by the shift away from fossil fuels; provide modern energy access to millions of people; and protect vulnerable customers from unaffordable energy prices. For the first time, the World Bank has outlined a vision for how the international community can support LICs and MICs to overcome critical barriers that are paralyzing the power sector transition. Drawing on findings of the first set of Country Climate and Development Reports produced by the World Bank, and decades of engagement with energy sector development, this approach distills understanding of the unique challenges that LICs and MICs face in undertaking this transition at the scale and pace required to meet their development and climate needs. The approach may help both World Bank clients and development partners in preparing a roadmap to catalyze and sustain a virtuous cycle that unleashes urgently needed investment in power sector transition. Chapter 1 explains that the capital-intensive nature of clean energy investments, combined with the lack of access to affordable capital, have a disproportionate and distorting effect on the power sector transitions of LICs and MICs. Even where renewable energy has the potential to provide a more affordable energy supply and improve energy security and health, the up-front capital costs that must be borne leave LICs and MICs locked into using costly fossil fuels. Chapter 2 discusses additional barriers to the scaling up of clean energy and the concomitant phasing down of coal. The commitment of governments will be essential in order to foster the policies, regulations, and institutions needed to prepare a pipeline of projects that can attract private capital. This chapter argues that concessional finance is essential in order to overcome the barriers to investments of private capital at the necessary levels. Chapter 3 discusses how public and concessional support must be deployed with a disciplined approach in order to scale up clean energy and energy efficiency. Chapter 4 explains the need to phase down the use of unabated coal, and the instruments to do so in a manner that manages losses and protects the most vulnerable. Chapter 5 concludes the paper with a discussion of how larger and sustained volumes of concessional capital could be more effectively structured within country-based programmatic approaches and technology demonstration partnerships in order to scale up the financial resources and political momentum for transitioning the power sector.