Scaling-up the installation of hybrid solar collectors to reduce CO2 emissions in a Mexican industrial sector from now to 2030

Abstract

This work aims to study and analyze the technical and avoided CO2e emissions potential of scaling up a novel hybrid solar technology in the Food and Beverage (F&B) industrial sector in Mexico. The prospective analysis is developed establishing different economic and technological scenarios from 2020 to 2030, which are established based on energy demand historical data by location a local trends. A coupled Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning-TRNSYS (LEAP-TRNSYS) model is developed to determine the total hybrid solar collector capacity that need to be installed by 2030, and the CO2e abatement potential in the F&B industry. Valle de Mexico, Guadalajara, Monterrey, and Torreon were the identified regions with the greatest potential to deploy the proposed hybrid solar technology considering the F&B industry. The determined technical potential (total collector installation area) of the hybrid solar technology in the F&B sector was 7.25 million m2, 6.24 million m2, and 5.31 million m2 for the positive, stagnation, and negative economic growth scenarios, respectively. The deployment of the proposed hybrid solar technology has an excellent decarbonization potential in the studied sector, achieving by 2030 a CO2e emissions reduction of up to 51.7%, 43.51%, and 34.06% from the levels of 2018 for the negative, stagnation, and positive economic growth, respectively.