Scaling law method for cost estimation of Indonesia’s first HTGR (PeLUIt-40) and its implementation strategy

Abstract

The Indonesian government has planned to build its first high-temperature gas reactor (HTGR), PeLUIt-40. A lack of estimates for PeLUIt-40′s costs hamper planning and implementation. Therefore, research is needed to determine the cost of PeLUIt-40 and develop an implementation strategy. Cost estimation is done using the scaling law method. The estimated cost for FOAK PeLUIt-40 is 215.83 million USD for investment, 14.20 million USD for annual O&M, 5.32 million USD for annual fuel and transportation, and 6.16 million USD for decommissioning costs. Using FOAK PeLUIt-40 for electricity generation produces an LCOE in the range of 37.82 to 11 cents USD/kWh. The LCOE value is lower than the diesel power plant's generation cost, which is 39.86 cents USD/kWh and produces an NPV of 15.94 million USD. Some implementation strategies can be made to make PeLUIt-40 more economically feasible, i.e., increasing NOAK from PeLUIt-40, providing incentives by the government, and adjusting PeLUIt-40′s technology grade. The results indicate that the strategies significantly impact the feasibility of PeLUIt-40 implementation. A sensitivity analysis was also conducted by changing the portion of indirect costs of FOAK HTGR to 77% of the direct costs and changing the discount rate from 10% to 3%. The discount rate change makes the LCOE of PeLUIt-40 range from 37.82 to 11 cents USD/kWh, NPV from 15.94 million USD to 871.45 million USD, and IRR from 10.75% to 37.87%.