Scales and Consequences of Deep Decarbonization of the Russian Electric Power Industry

Abstract

—The article considers possible scales of changes in Russia’s Unified Energy System (UES) generation capacity structure and the associated costs necessary for adapting the electric power industry to various, in terms of stringency, requirements for reducing carbon emissions and decreasing the electricity production carbon intensity in 2040–2050. To this end, production and economic indicators are predicted for the so-called “boundary” industry’s development scenarios, which differ essentially in the scales of such changes, and provide different contributions in decarbonization of the country’s economy. One of the scenarios was drawn up based on the assumption that the existing trends and rates of changes in the technological structure would remain the same, with which a stable level of electricity price and amount of СО2 emissions will be reached by 2050. The second scenario implies that a transition will be made after 2030 to more intensive changes due to increasing the number and capacity of carbon-free power plants, improving the energy efficiency of thermal power plants (TPPs), and substituting their use of coal. Taken in combination, these measures will make it possible to reduce the СО2 emissions from power plants by almost 40% by 2050. Two electric power industry development scenarios are compared with respect to the following indicators: installed capacity and electricity production, and their mix (share distribution) by power plant types, necessary amounts of commissioning the capacities of thermal and carbon-free power plants and the required capital investments, demand for fuel, financial requirements of the electric power industry, and electricity price variation dynamics. The capital intensity of reducing the СО2 emissions and electricity production carbon intensity is estimated, and the scales of unavoidable growth in the price of electricity for its consumers in Russia are shown.