Savings–Investment Correlation and Capital Outflow: The Case of Pakistan

Abstract

This study explores the savings–investment relationship in the context of financial liberalization and flexible exchange rate regime in Pakistan. Ng–Perron test is employed to examine the order of integration of the variables used in the model. For long-run analysis, ARDL bounds testing approach is used and short-run dynamics are captured from error correction model (ECM). Time series data are utilized covering the period 1976–2006. Empirical findings indicate that in the case of Pakistan, there is a weak correlation between savings and investment. The study suggests that in the presence of inadequate capital mobility within the country, domestic investors have financed investment projects from international market. Furthermore, devaluation and inflation have stimulated investment activities in the country and significantly contributed in closing the gap between domestic savings and investment.