Savings, investment and economic growth in Nigeria: a forecast error variance decomposition analysis

Abstract

Using the forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD) of the VAR model, this study critically examined the transmission of shocks among private savings, private investment and economic growth in Nigeria. Annual time series data from 1970–2012 were employed in the analysis. The Johansen cointegration test identifies two cointegrating vectors among the three variables of interest. The forecast error variance decomposition estimates from the VAR model reveal that private savings significantly contribute to the variability of real gross domestic product (a proxy for economic growth) and private investment in Nigeria. On the other hand, the result shows that private investment contributes modestly in explaining the variations of private savings and real gross domestic product. The result further reveals that real gross domestic product does not have direct substantial effects on private savings and private investment variability in Nigeria.