Abstract

In the previous literature studies, the saving condition is mainly examined focusing in Developing countries and Asian countries. The examination on the saving condition is crucial due to the linkages between saving accumulation and economic growth. The studies that focused in Developed countries are limited. This study extends the analysis by comparing the saving determination in Developed and Developing European countries and contributes to the literature of saving in two ways. First, the study compares the two panel groups, Developed and Developing European countries, which might reveal how economic development could affect the saving behavior. Second, the study considers the cross-section dependency effect in the panel data analysis by applying the testing (second-generation panel unit-root and cointegration tests) and the estimation approaches (Augmented Mean Group, AMG estimator). The study demonstrates that ignoring the cross-section dependency effect might lead to misleading results. Four determinants of savings are examined (GDP per capita, age dependency ratio on working group, inflation and government expenditure). Our results reveal the existence of cointegration and cross-section dependency in the saving relationship in both panel groups. Comparing the results across panel groups, it is observed that government expenditure is contributes to lower saving in both groups of countries with larger impact in the Developed European countries. On the other hand, GDP contributes to higher saving in both groups of countries. Inflation also leads to higher saving in the Developed group but not in the Developing group. Age dependency ratio is not influential in the Developed group but might trigger lower saving in the Developing group.

Highlights

  • Saving is a macro indicator that may reflect the health and stability of an economy

  • This study examines the determinants of saving by applying both panel testing and estimation (AMG estimator) approaches

  • The study contributes to the literature on saving in filling in the lack / limitation from the previous studies that did not consider the cross-sectional dependency of panel data analysis

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Summary

Introduction

Saving is a macro indicator that may reflect the health and stability of an economy. The saving condition and tendency may signal the change of economic structure due to the linkages between accumulated saving and economic activities / indicators. When an economy achieves its equilibrium, both saving and investment should equal each other. Solow proposed saving and investment as the determinants of economic growth. In the long run, increases of saving and investment have no effect on economic growth (Solow, 1956). Examining the determinants of saving is a substantial issue for the policy makers to maintain the balanced economic growth. Apart from the linkages among economic variables, saving may reflect the behavior of household and the structure of the population. According to Modigliani (1970)’s life cycle hypothesis, private saving behavior mostly depends on the age structure of the population. Income growth encourages individuals to save more to maintain their consumption level in the retirement period. Common ground of these studies on examining the savings is the use of both demographic and macroeconomic variables

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