Saturated Demand Forecast of Regional Power Grid Based on Amended Self-Adaptive Logistic Model: A Case Study of East China

Tai-Hua Yang,Rui Sun,Qiming Wei,Yuqi Gao

doi:10.1109/access.2020.3046105

Abstract

Saturated power demand is a crucial indicator affecting the scale of power grid development. It is essential for power grid planning to study the saturated trend of power demand and predict the time and scale when the order reaches saturation. In this context, this paper divides the growth process of power demand into three stages, proposes a modified self-adaptive Logistic model, and takes the power demand in East China as an example to verify the accuracy and practicability of the model, and carries out the saturation prediction research. Finally, according to the research results, the corresponding suggestions are put forward.

Highlights

Saturated power demand is a crucial indicator affecting the scale of power development, which is a new concept proposed in recent years [1]
Under the current background, it has two practical significance to study the saturation trend of electricity demand and predict the saturation scale of demand growth: One is to guide the medium and long-term planning of electric power. It plays a vital role in the overall planning and construction of the electric power industry and the national economy
If there are no new external drastic factors in the future, the annual electricity demand in East China will stabilize at about 300 billion kWh

Summary

INTRODUCTION

Saturated power demand is a crucial indicator affecting the scale of power development, which is a new concept proposed in recent years [1]. The growth of power demand will slow down or even stagnate as the economic development trend narrows, indicating a saturated state [2]–[4]. Under the current background, it has two practical significance to study the saturation trend of electricity demand and predict the saturation scale of demand growth: One is to guide the medium and long-term planning of electric power. It plays a vital role in the overall planning and construction of the electric power industry and the national economy. Yang et al.: Saturated Demand Forecast of Regional Power Grid Based on Amended Self-Adaptive Logistic Model. The traditional model often has a large fitting error, which leads to a large deviation between the forecast results and the actual situation

MODIFIED ADAPTIVE LOGISTIC MODEL

ESTIMATION METHOD OF MODEL PARAMETERS

Findings

CONCLUSION AND SUGGESTIONS