Satellite-driven modeling approach for monitoring lava flow hazards during the 2017 Etna eruption

Annalisa Cappello,Ciro Del Negro,Giuseppe Bilotta,Alexis Herault,Gaetana Ganci,Vito Zago

doi:10.4401/ag-7792

Annalisa Cappello, Ciro Del Negro + Show 4 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-7792

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Abstract

The integration of satellite data and numerical modeling represents an efficient strategy to find immediate answers to the main issues raised at the onset of a new effusive eruption. Satellite thermal remote sensing can provide a variety of products suited to timing, locating, and tracking the radiant character of lava flows, including the opening times of eruptive vents. The time-series analysis of thermal satellite data can also provide estimates of the time-averaged discharge rate and volume. High-spatial resolution multispectral satellite data complement field observations for monitoring the lava emplacement in terms of flow length and area. All these satellite-derived parameters can be passed as input to physics-based numerical models in order to produce more accurate and reliable forecasts of effusive scenarios during ongoing eruptions. Here, we demonstrate the potential of the integrated application of satellite remote sensing techniques and lava flow models during the 2017 eruptive activity of Mt Etna. Remote sensing data from SEVIRI are analyzed by the HOTSAT system to output hotspot location, lava thermal flux, and effusion rate estimation. This output is used to drive, as well as to continuously update, lava flow simulations performed by the physics-based MAGFLOW model. We also show how Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 satellite data complement the field observations to track the flow front position in time and add valuable data on lava flow advancement with which to iteratively validate the numerical simulations.

Highlights

During the first half of 2017, Mount Etna (Sicily, Italy) showed an intense eruptive activity in the summit area (Figure 1)
The first eruptive episode started from a vent (V1 in Figure 1) located in the old “saddle” between the South-East Crater (SEC) and the New Southeast Crater (NSEC) on the late afternoon of the 27 February 2017 [INGV Weekly Report N°10/2017]
Satellite observations can be combined with field measurements to provide different kind of data, including the location and occurrence of eruptive events, effusion rate and volume estimates, front position and lava flow area

Summary

INTRODUCTION

During the first half of 2017, Mount Etna (Sicily, Italy) showed an intense eruptive activity in the summit area (Figure 1). The first eruptive episode started from a vent (V1 in Figure 1) located in the old “saddle” between the South-East Crater (SEC) and the New Southeast Crater (NSEC) on the late afternoon of the 27 February 2017 [INGV Weekly Report N°10/2017]. It was characterized by the emission of lava fountains, pyroclastic material, and a lava overflow towards the Valle del Bove (VdB). In the morning of 19 April V1 reactivated with a new lava flow that followed the same path of the two previous effusions (10-11 and 13-15 April), towards the western edge of VdB The objective of such efforts is to improve confidence in the interpretation of final model simulations and to document how the model results could be incorporated into decision support systems

TADR AND VOLUME ESTIMATION FROM SEVIRI

LAVA FLOW MAPPING USING MULTISPECTRAL IMAGES

SCENARIO FORECASTING USING THE MAGFLOW MODEL

Findings

DISCUSSION

CONCLUSIONS