Satellite-Based Lagrangian Model Reveals How Upwelling and Oceanic Circulation Shape Krill Hotspots in the California Current System

Abstract

In the California Current System, wind-driven nutrient supply and primary production, computed from satellite data, provide a synoptic view of how phytoplankton production is coupled to upwelling. In contrast, linking upwelling to zooplankton populations is difficult due to relatively scarce observations and the inherent patchiness of zooplankton. While phytoplankton respond quickly to environmental forcing, zooplankton grow slower and tend to aggregate into mesoscale “hotspot” regions spatially decoupled from upwelling centers. To better understand mechanisms controlling the formation of zooplankton hotspots, we use a satellite-based Lagrangian method where variables from a plankton model, forced by wind-driven nutrient supply, are advected by near-surface currents following upwelling events. Modeled zooplankton distribution reproduces published accounts of euphausiid (krill) hotspots, including the location of major hotspots and their interannual variability. This satellite-based modeling tool is used to analyze the variability and drivers of krill hotspots in the California Current System, and to investigate how water masses of different origin and history converge to form predictable biological hotspots. The Lagrangian framework suggests that two conditions are necessary for a hotspot to form: a convergence of coastal water masses, and above average nutrient supply where these water masses originated from. The results highlight the role of upwelling, oceanic circulation, and plankton temporal dynamics in shaping krill mesoscale distribution, seasonal northward propagation, and interannual variability.