Satellite thermal infrared data of Shiveluch, Kliuchevskoi and Karymsky, 1993–2008: effusion, explosions and the potential to forecast ash plumes

Abstract

This paper presents an analysis of Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) thermal data from Shiveluch, Kliuchevskoi and Karymsky (Kamchatka, Russia) from 1993 to 2008. These different volcanoes show contrasting and variable patterns in their thermal data and lack reliable precursory thermal trends prior to large explosions. Pixel-integrated temperatures (pirT) at Shiveluch were above background during three phases: (1) 1993–1995, (2) 2001–2005 and (3) 2006–time of writing, each of which was associated with growth of an andesitic dome punctuated by explosions. The coarse spatial resolution of the AVHRR may have prevented observation of precursory thermal patterns at this volcano. Kliuchevskoi showed five phases, these show a rapid (days) or gradual (weeks to months) increase in temperature followed by rapid drop-offs, suggesting these basaltic eruptions start explosively, followed by lava effusion or vice versa. Fast magma ascent rates probably prevent the generation of thermal precursors. At Karymsky, elevated pirT values cluster into seven phases showing three trends: (1) persistently high pirT, (2) a gradual increase and decrease and (3) gradual increase followed by steep drop-offs. These trends are due to the extrusion of viscous andesitic–dacitic lava, not to Strombolian–Vulcanian activity, and show no consistent pattern prior to large explosions. PirT values at Karymsky Lake reflect the dyke intrusion that started the 1996 eruptive cycle at Karymsky. The values obtained here provide a baseline against which to monitor these volcanoes and Karymsky Lake in the future.