Abstract
Quantitative analysis of the spatiotemporal pattern of urban expansion and forecasting of the progress towards SDG11.3.1 are of great significance for the promotion of sustainable urban development. This study employed the spatiotemporal normalized threshold method to extract urban built-up areas in the Pearl River–Xijiang Economic Belt based on night-time light data and investigated the intricate patterns of urban expansion from 2000 to 2020. Then, the historical trends of the SDG11.3.1 indicators within the economic belt were evaluated, and future urban built-up areas were predicted based on the SSP1 scenario. The results indicate the following: (1) Built-up area extraction has an overall accuracy that exceeds 97% and G-mean values that all surpass 82%, indicating the high accuracy of the method. (2) The Pearl River–Xijiang Economic Belt demonstrates evident urban expansion trends, albeit with uneven development. The urban area of the economic belt has expanded from 1020.29 km2 to 3826.87 km2, the expansion direction of each city is different, and the center of gravity of the economic belt has moved to the southeast. (3) During the period from 2008 to 2020, the entire economic belt experienced a situation where the urban expansion rate was lower than the population growth rate, and there was an imbalance in urban development (LCRPGR = 0.33). However, looking ahead to the period from 2020 to 2030, the average LCRPGR for the entire economic belt shows a significant upward trend, approaching the ideal state of sustainable development (LCRPGR ≈ 1).
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