Satellite hydrology observations as operational indicators of forecasted fire danger across the contiguous United States

Alireza Farahmand,Ali Behrangi,E Natasha Stavros,Brad Quayle,John T Reager,James T Randerson

doi:10.5194/nhess-20-1097-2020

Abstract

Abstract. Traditional methods for assessing fire danger often depend on meteorological forecasts, which have reduced reliability after ∼10 d. Recent studies have demonstrated long lead-time correlations between pre-fire-season hydrological variables such as soil moisture and later fire occurrence or area burned, yet the potential value of these relationships for operational forecasting has not been studied. Here, we use soil moisture data refined by remote sensing observations of terrestrial water storage from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission and vapor pressure deficit from NASA's Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) mission to generate monthly predictions of fire danger at scales commensurate with regional management. We test the viability of predictors within nine US geographic area coordination centers (GACCs) using regression models specific to each GACC. Results show that the model framework improves interannual wildfire-burned-area prediction relative to climatology for all GACCs. This demonstrates the importance of hydrological information to extend operational forecast ability into the months preceding wildfire activity.

Highlights

Fires are a key disturbance globally, acting as a catalyst for terrestrial ecosystem change and contributing significantly to both carbon emissions (Page et al, 2002) and changes in surface albedo (Randerson et al, 2006)
One pattern that is robust is that Great Basin, Southwest, and Southern California all rely on 1-month lead-time soil moisture in their predictive model and all have substantial shrubland cover
The aim of this study was to predict area burned in different geographic regions (GACCs) of the United States

Summary

Introduction

Fires are a key disturbance globally, acting as a catalyst for terrestrial ecosystem change and contributing significantly to both carbon emissions (Page et al, 2002) and changes in surface albedo (Randerson et al, 2006). In response to increasing annual area burned and detrimental losses, the US Forest Service has increased funding for active fire management from 16 % to 52 % of their total budget that would have otherwise been spent on land management and research (USFS, 2015). These increased costs translate directly to increased USFS (United States Forest Service) information needs because any intra- or interannual early warning helps decrease the cost of preparing for, managing and, when necessary, suppressing fires that occur

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Conclusion