Abstract
Satellite-based active fire (AF) products provide opportunities for constructing continuous fire progression maps, a critical dataset needed for improved fire behavior modeling and fire management. This study aims to investigate the geospatial interpolation techniques in mapping the daily fire progression and assess the accuracy of the derived maps from multisensor AF products. We focused on 42 large wildfires greater than 5000 acres in Northern California from 2017 to 2018, where the USDA Forest Service National Infrared Operations (NIROPS) daily fire perimeters were available for the comparison. The standard AF products from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS), the visible infrared imaging radiometer suite (VIIRS), and the combined products were used as inputs. We found that the estimated fire progression areas generated by the natural neighbor method with the combined MODIS and VIIRS AF input layers performed the best, with R 2 of 0.7 ± 0.31 and RMSE of 1.25 ± 1.21 (103 acres) at a daily time scale; the accuracy was higher when assessed at a two-day rolling window, e.g., R 2 of 0.83 ± 0.20 and RMSE of 0.74 ± 0.94 (103 acres). A relatively higher spatial accuracy was found using the 375 m VIIRS AF product as inputs, with a kappa score of 0.55 and an overall accuracy score of 0.59, when interpolated with the natural neighbor method. Furthermore, the locational pixel-based comparison showed 61% matched to a single day and an additional 25% explained within ±1 day of the estimation, revealing greater confidence in fire progression estimation at a two-day moving time interval. This study demonstrated the efficacy and potential improvements of daily fire progression mapping at local and regional scales.
Highlights
T HE frequency and intensity of wildfires have been increasing in the western United States over the past few decades, raising urgent needs in disentangling the drivers of this shifting fire regime [1], [2]
In an effort to aid in the subsequent fire research across the region, we here focus on wildfires across Northern California larger than 5000 acres (20.23 km2) from 2017 to 2018, where the daily fire perimeters were available from National Infrared Operations (NIROPS)
The moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) active fire (AF) products detected approximately 56 748 acres (402 individual points at 1 km) and the visible infrared imaging radiometer suite (VIIRS) AF products detected around 40 046 acres (1769 points at 375 m). Detection omissions from both MODIS and VIIRS AF products were predominantly observed in the southwestern direction of fire perimeters during this period
Summary
T HE frequency and intensity of wildfires have been increasing in the western United States over the past few decades, raising urgent needs in disentangling the drivers of this shifting fire regime [1], [2]. Human-related drivers, such as population growth, expansion of human settlement, forest management decisions, and cultural perceptions of fires, have been thought to magnify the destructive nature of wildfires [4]. Forest management policies have removed frequent and often nonlethal fires by implementing fire suppression efforts since the late 19th century, resulting in the alteration of fuel dynamics and increased susceptibility of high-intensity fires [2], [5], [6]. The efficient and more accurate methods of monitoring and simulating fire spread are crucial for supporting near real time, on-the-ground aid for firefighting, and for providing the basis for future fire and forest management efforts
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