Abstract

The satellite-derived sea ice concentration (SIC) and thickness (SIT) observation over the Arctic region are assimilated by implementing the Ensemble Optimal Interpolation (EnOI) into the Community Ice CodE version 5.1.2 (CICE5) model. The assimilated observations are derived from Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS) for the SIC, European Space Agency's (ESA) Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity mission (SMOS) for the SIT of the thin ice, and ESA's CryoSat-2 satellite for the SIT of the thick ice. The SIC, and SIT observations are assimilated during 2000–2019, and 2011–2019, respectively. The quality of the reanalysis is evaluated by comparing with observation and modeled data. Three data assimilation experiments are conducted: noDA without data assimilation, Ver1 with SIC assimilation, and Ver2 with SIC and SIT assimilation. The climatological bias of the SIC in noDA was reduced in Ver1 by 29% in marginal ice zones during boreal winter, and 82% in pan-Arctic ocean during boreal summer. The quality of simulating the interannual variation of sea ice extent (SIE) is improved in all months particularly during boreal summer. The root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) of SIE anomaly in August are significantly reduced compared to noDA. However, the interannual variations of SIT is unrealistic in Ver1 which requires the additional assimilation of the SIT observation. The climatological bias of SIT over the Arctic was further reduced in Ver2 by 28% during boreal winter compared to that in Ver1. The interannual variability of SIT anomalies is realistically simulated in Ver2 by reducing the RMSEs of SIT anomalies by 33% in February, and 28% in August by compared to that in Ver1. The dominant interannual variation extracted by empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of SIT anomalies in Ver2 is better simulated than Ver1. The additional assimilation of SIT improves not only SIT, but also SIC. The climatological bias of SIE and the errors in leading EOF of SIC anomalies in Ver2 is further reduced compared to those in Ver1 during boreal winter. However, improvements led by assimilating additional SIT observation is not clear during boreal summer, possible due to the lack of available SIT observation during this season.

Highlights

  • Arctic sea ice is an important component of the Earth system in a warming climate that changes most dramatically during recent decades (Serreze et al, 2009; Screen and Simmonds, 2010; Perovich et al, 2017; Kwok, 2018)

  • The reanalysis produced in this study aims to improve the quality of the initial condition of the sea ice component in the Global Seasonal forecast system (GloSea) for the seasonal forecasts (Maclachlan et al, 2015)

  • The SIC assimilation have an effect on the correction in climatological bias of SIT, but interannual variations of the SIT are still unrealistic (Figure 7), which requires an additional assimilation of SIT observation

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Summary

Introduction

Arctic sea ice is an important component of the Earth system in a warming climate that changes most dramatically during recent decades (Serreze et al, 2009; Screen and Simmonds, 2010; Perovich et al, 2017; Kwok, 2018). Arctic sea ice extent and thickness have consistently decreased rapidly in all seasons due to the anthropogenic forcing during last few decades (Kwok and Rothrock, 2009; Stroeve et al, 2012a). In addition to the contribution of anthropogenic forcing, internal variability dominating the Arctic summer circulation trend is important cause of declining in September Arctic sea ice since 1979 (Ding et al, 2017). Dramatic decrease of Arctic sea ice has increased interannual variability in the sea ice extent (SIE), from summer to autumn. Holland et al (2008) showed the significant increase in standard deviation of September SIE anomaly in the global climate model projections, which eventually would contribute to decrease the predictability for Arctic sea ice in the future. Massonnet et al (2018) suggested that Arctic sea ice volume will exhibit less year-to-year variability through the enhanced action of growth and melt processes as the ice thins in the future projections

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