“Satark”: Landslide Prediction System over Western Ghats of India

Abstract

Mountains on the west coast of India are known as the Western Ghat (WG). The WG region has a landslide (LS) susceptibility index of four and is prone to LSs in the monsoon season due to rainfall activity. The LS study focuses on the area between 15.5–20.5° N, 72.5–77.0° E in the Maharashtra state. A catalog of 115 LS events in the study area has been prepared by collecting LS data for 17 years (2000–2016) from various sources. The area from the windward to the leeward side of the WG mountains is divided into three regions: (1) the windward region (72.5–73.4° E) (90 km width), (2) the immediate lee side (ILS) (73.40–74.20° E) (80 km width), and (3) distant lee side (DLS) (74.2–77.0° E) (280 km width). The Center for Citizen Science (CCS), Pune, India, developed the LS-predicting model “Satark” using data from satellites, the India Meteorological Department weather forecasts, radar products, synoptic conditions, and atmospheric sounding data from the Wyoming site for inferring conditions for a hydraulic jump on the WG. The model validation for the 5 years (2017–2021) showed a reasonably good Heidke skill score of 0.44. The model showed 76.5% success in LS prediction 1 day in advance. It is the first attempt of this kind in the Indian region.