Abstract
Different monitoring and control policies have been implemented in schools to minimize the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Transmission in schools has been hard to quantify due to the large proportion of asymptomatic carriers in young individuals. We applied a Bayesian approach to reconstruct the transmission chains between 284 SARS-CoV-2 infections ascertained during 87 school outbreak investigations conducted between March and April 2021 in Italy. Under the policy of reactive quarantines, we found that 42.5% (95%CrI: 29.5–54.3%) of infections among school attendees were caused by school contacts. The mean number of secondary cases infected at school by a positive individual during in-person education was estimated to be 0.33 (95%CrI: 0.23–0.43), with marked heterogeneity across individuals. Specifically, we estimated that only 26.0% (95%CrI: 17.6–34.1%) of students and school personnel who tested positive during in-person education caused at least one secondary infection at school. Positive individuals who attended school for at least 6 days before being isolated or quarantined infected on average 0.49 (95%CrI: 0.14–0.83) secondary cases. Our findings provide quantitative insights on the contribution of school transmission to the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in young individuals. Identifying positive cases within 5 days after exposure to their infector could reduce onward transmission at school by at least 30%.
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