SARS-CoV-2 infection in UK university students: lessons from September-December 2020 and modelling insights for future student return.

Jessica Enright,Julia R Gog,Ellen Brooks-Pollock,Emily J Nixon,Helena B Stage,Lars Schewe,Emma L Fairbanks,Rebecca B Hoyle,Chris J Budd,Louise Dyson,Kirsty J Bolton,Maria L Tang,Michael J Tildesley,Edward M Hill

doi:10.1098/rsos.210310

Abstract

In this paper, we present work on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in UK higher education settings using multiple approaches to assess the extent of university outbreaks, how much those outbreaks may have led to spillover in the community, and the expected effects of control measures. Firstly, we found that the distribution of outbreaks in universities in late 2020 was consistent with the expected importation of infection from arriving students. Considering outbreaks at one university, larger halls of residence posed higher risks for transmission. The dynamics of transmission from university outbreaks to wider communities is complex, and while sometimes spillover does occur, occasionally even large outbreaks do not give any detectable signal of spillover to the local population. Secondly, we explored proposed control measures for reopening and keeping open universities. We found the proposal of staggering the return of students to university residence is of limited value in terms of reducing transmission. We show that student adherence to testing and self-isolation is likely to be much more important for reducing transmission during term time. Finally, we explored strategies for testing students in the context of a more transmissible variant and found that frequent testing would be necessary to prevent a major outbreak.

Highlights

The global spread of SARS-CoV-2 has resulted in widespread usage of social distancing measures and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to inhibit the spread of infection
This indicated that students in halls where they all share a bathroom with at least one other are approximately 50% more likely to become infected than students in halls with all en-suite rooms
Our results—with the caveat that they are subject to any bias in confirming and reporting infection— suggest that infection risk in large residential settings is difficult to mitigate by segmenting students into households, and the risk of living in large residential settings is exacerbated by the use of shared bathrooms

Summary

Introduction

The global spread of SARS-CoV-2 has resulted in widespread usage of social distancing measures and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to inhibit the spread of infection. Measures brought in when entering the first nationwide lockdown in the UK in March 2020 included closure of higher education establishments, such as universities, to most in-person activities. Higher education in the UK comprises a large population of students, with over 2.3 million higher education students enrolled in the 2018/2019 academic year across over 160 higher education providers [1] (universities, essentially). This results in a sizeable movement of students nationwide at the beginning and end of academic terms (in addition to international student travel). In the context of an ongoing disease outbreak, the migration of students can contribute to increased population mobility, with an associated need for careful management in order to minimize the risk of seeding outbreaks both in universities and in the wider community

Methods

Results

Conclusion