Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic is a harsh reminder of the fact that, whether in a single human host or a wave of infection across continents, viral dynamics is often a story about the numbers. In this article we provide a one-stop, curated graphical source for the key numbers (based mostly on the peer-reviewed literature) about the SARS-CoV-2 virus that is responsible for the pandemic. The discussion is framed around two broad themes: i) the biology of the virus itself; ii) the characteristics of the infection of a single human host.
Highlights
The COVID-19 pandemic has made brutally clear the need for further research into many aspects of viruses
In this article we compile data about the basic properties of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, and about how it interacts with the body (Figure 1)
We discuss a number of questions about the virus, and perform ’back-of-the-envelope’ calculations to show the insights that can be gained from knowing some key numbers and using quantitative reasoning
Summary
The COVID-19 pandemic has made brutally clear the need for further research into many aspects of viruses. Once a person is infected, it takes a period of time known as the ’latent period’ before they are able to transmit the virus. We expect » 1000x growth in one month, a million-fold (106) in two months, and a billion fold (109) in three months Even though this calculation is highly simplified, ignoring the effects of ’super-spreaders’, herd-immunity and incomplete testing, it emphasizes the fact that viruses can spread at a bewildering pace when no countermeasures are taken. This illustrates why it is crucial to limit the spread of the virus by physical distancing measures. To make the numbers round, let’s further suppose that you have a 2% chance of transmitting the virus in each of these encounters, so that you
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