Sampling based uncertainty analysis of station blackout in PSB VVER integral test facility

Abstract

Best estimate accident analysis with uncertainty evaluation is being encouraged in the present licensing scenarios of nuclear power plants. This paper deals with uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for station blackout in PSB VVER integral test facility under the framework of coordinated research project of IAEA. Nodalization was developed using best estimate system code RELAP5/MOD3.2 and its steady state and transient level qualifications are achieved. Sampling based approaches are used to carry out uncertainty and sensitivity/importance analysis. The objective of the analysis is to get confidence for uncertainty methodology by comparing with the experimental results and extend its applicability to NPPs. Uncertainty analysis is carried out by selecting nine important input parameters with specified ranges and its uniform distributions. A design matrix of 45 × 9 is generated for variations of input parameters with the Latin Hypercube Sampling and 45 code runs were taken. Linear regression was also carried out to quantify the effect of each individual input parameter on output parameters in terms of standard rank regression coefficients. Uncertainty band in output parameters is defined between 95th and 5th percentile value. It is observed that most of the experimental values and code calculated reference values are lying within the uncertainty band. For most of the parameters, width of uncertainty band increases with transient progression time.