SAMPL7 physical property prediction from EC-RISM theory

Abstract

Inspired by the successful application of the embedded cluster reference interaction site model (EC-RISM), a combination of quantum–mechanical calculations with three-dimensional RISM theory to predict Gibbs energies of species in solution within the SAMPL6.1 (acidity constants, pKa) and SAMPL6.2 (octanol–water partition coefficients, log P) the methodology was applied to the recent SAMPL7 physical property challenge on aqueous pKa and octanol–water log P values. Not part of the challenge but provided by the organizers, we also computed distribution coefficients log D7.4 from predicted pKa and log P data. While macroscopic pKa predictions compared very favorably with experimental data (root mean square error, RMSE 0.72 pK units), the performance of the log P model (RMSE 1.84) fell behind expectations from the SAMPL6.2 challenge, leading to reasonable log D7.4 predictions (RMSE 1.69) from combining the independent calculations. In the post-submission phase, conformations generated by different methodology yielded results that did not significantly improve the original predictions. While overall satisfactory compared to previous log D challenges, the predicted data suggest that further effort is needed for optimizing the robustness of the partition coefficient model within EC-RISM calculations and for shaping the agreement between experimental conditions and the corresponding model description.