Salinity Biases and the Variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in GFDL-CM3

Abstract

The variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the Meridional Freshwater Transport (Mov) at 24°N, 11°S, and 30°S, simulated with the GFDL-CM3 model under the historical (1860–2005) and RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios (2006–2100) are examined. The results are compared with the climatology and observations in the search for salinity biases that would compromise the accuracy of the state of the future climate predicted by this model. The AMOC wavelet analysis shows a predominant decadal variability at 24°N, whereas the annual signal is more prominent in the South Atlantic. The Mov magnitude varies considerably among the latitudes: increasing at 24°N, rather stable at 11°S and decreasing at 30°S. Such a pattern is followed by an AMOC weakening regardless of the latitude until the end of the 21st century, indicating that a reduction in Mov in the southern South Atlantic and an increase in the North Atlantic are potential drivers of the AMOC destabilization. Both model and observations agree on the stability of the circulation, even though the model projects a stronger AMOC than the latter. Besides the AMOC weakening, a shoaling of its upper limb is also observed. Salinity biases were found mostly in the South Atlantic in the upper 1000 m of the water column, with the model results significantly deviating from the observations and climatology in the mid-Atlantic, especially at 30°S. Possible causes for the abovementioned results, including potential drivers for salinity biases are discussed.