Sales Forecasting of New Energy Vehicles in China: under the Subsidy Recession and Carbon Credits

Abstract

As one of China's strategic emerging industries, the new energy automotive industry is not only one of the key industries to deal with energy security, climate change and environmental protection, but also an important breakthrough in the upgrading of the automobile industry. In this paper, based on the actual sales of new energy vehicles in China, the improved gray model (NGM model) are used to predict the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles in China by 2020. The forecast result shows that while the sales of NEVs will continue to rise, the declining of subsidies will have some impact on the growth rate. Based on the basic prediction, the article draws on the United States carbon credits (ZEV policy) to analyze and research on China's carbon credits policy.