Safety Performance Evaluation (SPE) of Uncertainty Quantification Based on Grey Dynamic Modeling: Case Study of a Coal Mine in China

Abstract

With the persistent growth in the global population and the rapid development of industrial engineering, the significance to the safety management of engineering practice has become increasingly prominent. The evaluation method for safety performance is a complex systematic problem in the safety management of industrial engineering. This paper is to introduce a safety evaluation method referring to the integrated treatment of safety management. It selected accident loss and accident rate as evaluation indexes, and identified a reasonable index system. Based on this risk index system, the mathematical model of the differential equation using grey variable weight clustering analysis is set up to evaluate the safety performance. The validity of the method is verified by the numerical example of a coal mine in China. According to the results of clustering, the safety performance is divided into three grades of “better”, “moderate” and “inferior”. Moreover, the future safety performance is predicted further by using GM (1,1) dynamic model, and the relevant prevention measures are put forward. A set of systematic method of safety performance evaluation (SPE) and risk prediction is presented for industrial engineering and practice, and provide a reference for safety management.