Abstract
Crash-based safety performance functions (SPFs) typically cannot account for all design and operational factors that contribute to crash frequency in assessing the safety impacts of these factors. An approach using surrogate safety measures can address this issue, providing these measures can be linked to crashes. This approach was explored by using microsimulation to generate and analyze conflicts for merge areas on Ontario freeways. Crash–conflict integrated SPFs with different time to collision thresholds were then developed and compared. The results of the conflict-based SPFs are in agreement with those from crash-based SPFs developed for the same sample, with logically negative coefficients for acceleration lane length and positive coefficients for traffic volumes. This suggests that the crash–conflict approach is a reasonable substitute for conventional crash prediction models in assessing the safety effects of design changes, especially for those changes that cannot be captured in the conventional models.
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