Safety diagnosis: Are we doing a good job?

Abstract

Collision diagnosis is the second step in the six-step road safety management process described in the AASHTO Highway Safety Manual (HSM). Diagnosis is designed to identify a dominant or abnormally high proportion of particular collision configurations (e.g., rear end, right angle, etc.) at a target location. The primary diagnosis method suggested in the HSM is descriptive data analysis. This type of analysis relies on, for example, pie charts, histograms, and/or collision diagrams. Using location specific collision data (e.g., collision frequency per collision configuration for a target location), safety engineers identify (the most) frequent collision configurations. Safety countermeasures are then likely to concentrate on preventing the selected collision configurations. Although its real-world application in engineering practice is limited, an additional collision diagnosis method, known as the beta-binomial (BB) test, is also presented as the secondary diagnosis tool in the HSM. The BB test compares the proportion of a particular collision configuration observed at one location with the proportion of the same collision configuration found at other reference locations which are similar to the target location in terms of selected traffic and roadway characteristics (e.g., traffic volume, traffic control, and number of lanes). This study compared the outcomes obtained from descriptive data analysis and the BB test, and investigates two questions: (1) Do descriptive data analysis and the BB tests produce the same results (i.e., do they select the same collision configurations at the same locations)? and (2) If the tests produce different results, which result should be adopted in engineering practice? This study's analysis was based on a sample of the most recent five years (2005–2009) of collision and roadway configuration data for 143 signalized intersections in the City of Saskatoon, Saskatchewan. The study results show that the BB test's role in diagnosing safety concerns in road safety engineering projects such as safety review projects for existing roadways may be just as important as the descriptive data analysis method.