Safer neighborhoods? Violent crime and trauma volume pre/post targeted police interventions in Dallas, Texas

Abstract

BackgroundProject Safe Neighborhoods: Dallas (PSND) is part of a national initiative that partners federal, state, and local stakeholders and law enforcement to reduce violent crime, especially firearm violence, in select communities. The authors’ hospital is located centrally in PSND's target areas, and the trauma center's service area fully covers the target areas. This cohort study evaluated PSND's effectiveness by examining if PSND's April 2018 launch was associated with decreases in (1) violent crime or (2) the rate of patients presenting with firearm and assaultive injuries. MethodsData on violent crime (murder/non-negligent homicide, robbery, and aggravated assault) were obtained from all municipalities in the county for January 2015 – December 2020. Patient volume data were queried from the trauma registry for the same period. Nonlinear spatiotemporal models were used to calculate estimated rates and confidence intervals; derivatives were used to determine periods of significant change. Spatial point pattern tests assessed potential relocation of criminal activity. Given the importance of reducing violent crime, alpha was set at 0.05. ResultsThe target areas’ violent crime rate remained higher than the non-target areas’ throughout the study period, and target area violent crime non-significantly increased after PSND's launch. Violent crime in the non-target area increased significantly between February 2018 and February 2019. Part of this increase was attributable to a 7-fold increase (odds ratio [95% confidence interval] = 7.32 [2.58, 30.65], p < 0.001) in one police patrol beat just outside of the target areas. After years of decreases, rates of patients presenting with assaultive injuries or firearm injuries began significantly increasing and nearly doubled within two years of PSND. ConclusionsResults suggest PSND was ineffective. Criminal activity in the target area was not reduced relative to its pre-intervention levels or relative to the non-target areas. Offenders may have moved outside the target areas to evade increased scrutiny. Additionally, rates of firearm and assaultive injuries increased. As trusted third parties, trauma centers should consider evaluating local crime and injury prevention programs for effectiveness.