Abstract
Though the WTO agreement of safeguards prohibits VERs, WTO members can still use VERs without formal intergovernmental agreements. Our theoretical analysis shows that the fear of invoking a safeguard measure by an importing country on a good can induce a disruptive exporter of the good to enforce such a VER under certain conditions (for example, if the number of exporting country is not large). Our empirical analysis, using Japan's first safeguard actions as a case study, suggests that if producers of an exporting country capture an export market and if there is a large drop in their export price, the producers seeing a growing threat of safeguards will enforce such VERs. Our results highlight the need for amendments to the WTO Agreement on Safeguards.
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