Saddlepoint approximation-based reliability analysis method for structural systems with parameter uncertainties

Abstract

Due to epistemic uncertainty, precisely determining parameters of all distribution is impossible in engineering practice. In this article, a novel reliability analysis method based on the saddlepoint approximation is proposed for structural systems with parameter uncertainties. The proposed method includes four main steps: (1) sampling for random and probability-box variables, (2) approximating the cumulant generating functions for systems under the best and worst cases, (3) calculating saddlepoints for the best and worst cases, and (4) calculating the lower and upper bounds of the probability of failure. The proposed method is effective because it does not require a large sample size or solving complicated integrals. Furthermore, the proposed method provides results that have the same accuracy as the existing interval Monte Carlo simulation method, but with significantly reduced computational effort. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated with three examples that are compared against with the interval Monte Carlo simulation method.