Russia's State Budget in January-November 2014

Abstract

According to data released by the RF Federal Treasury, Russia’s federal budget revenue over the period of January–November 2014 increased by 0.5 p.p. of GDP on the same period of 2013 due to growth, by 0.5 p.p. of GDP, of the volume of oil and gas revenue.The main factor responsible for the upward movement of the oil and gas revenue index (and the corresponding upward movement of federal budget revenue) in face of plummeting world oil prices (to $60 per barrel) was the ruble’s dramatic weakening against the USD and euro. Thus, the federal budget surplus of 1.9 % of GDP achieved over the first eleven months of 2014, as well as the surplus of 0.4 % of GDP in the consolidated budget of RF subjects achieved over the ten months of 2014, can by no means be regarded as manifestations of the budget system’s sustainability as a whole. As early as late October 2014, Moody's Investors Service rating agency downgraded Russia’s credit rating index from Baa1 to Baa2, pointing out in this connection that any further weakening of this country’s national currency will have an extremely negative effect on the economy.