Russia's Prospects in Asia

Abstract

The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. Authors of Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) publications enjoy full academic freedom, provided they do not disclose classified information, jeopardize operations security, or misrepresent official U.S. policy. Such academic freedom empowers them to offer new and sometimes controversial perspectives in the interest of furthering debate on key issues. This report is cleared for public release; distribution is unlimited.FOREWORDThe papers collected here represent the Strategic Studies Institute's (SSI) continuing efforts to foster dialogue on topical issues in international security among experts from the United States and abroad. These papers are taken from the conference that SSI conducted on January 25-26, 2010, entitled, Contemporary Issues in International Security, at the Finnish embassy in Washington, DC. This was the second conference that SSI organized, bringing together U.S., Russian, and European experts to discuss important questions in contemporary world affairs. We hope to continue these conferences on an annual basis because of the importance of such dialogue among experts and governments. But rather than publishing as a book, which we did in 2009, SSI has decided to publish them on a panel-by-panel basis. This particular collection is devoted to the question of Russia's prospects in Asia, a question that is all too often overlooked in U.S. analyses of either Russia or Asia.Accordingly, we hope to help remedy that blindspot in U.S. analyses (a blindspot not found in analogous Russian analysis) by bringing the views of eminent Russian and U.S. analysts to our readers' attention. We hope that the succeeding collections of papers on topics of equal importance will similarly contribute to improved mutual understanding and ongoing dialogue regarding the great questions of world affairs.Douglas C. Lovelace, Jr.Director, Strategic Studies InstituteINTRODUCTIONOn January 25-26, 2010, the Strategic Studies Institute ( SSI) conducted a conference entitled, Contemporary Issues in International Security, at the Finnish embassy in Washington, DC. This was the second in what we hope will be annual conferences bringing together U.S., European, and Russian scholars and experts to discuss such issues in an open forum. The importance of such regular dialogues among experts is well known, and the benefits of these discussions are considerable. Just as we published the papers of the 2008 conference in 2009 (Stephen J. Blank, ed., Prospects for US-Russian Security Cooperation, Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 2009), we are doing so again. However, in this case, we are publishing the papers on a panel-by-panel basis.The panel presented here was devoted to an unjustly neglected topic, Russia's standing and prospects in East Asia. While U.S. policymakers openly discuss the possibilities for partnership with Russia in Europe and Central Asia, they often do not even bother to mention Russia as a player in East Asia, an omission that no Russian statesman has ever made, and with good reason. Indeed, for the last decade, Russia has consistently striven to upgrade its profile and capabilities in Asia. The papers set forth here depict three differing analyses of the extent to which Russia has succeeded or failed in this endeavor, including the nature of the complex East Asian environment in which Russia must operate. They make a strong case against such neglect of Russia as an Asian player, either in the analytical or policymaking process. These papers present differing U.S. and Russian assessments of Russia's Asian prospects for our readers' benefit. They will, so to speak, serve to kick off the ensuing publication of the papers from the other panels which dealt with issues of equal, if not even greater, consequence in contemporary security. …