Russia's Post-Stabilisation Economic Decline, its Crash and finally its Revival. Don't Just Blame the Corruption. It's the Exchange Rate, Stupid.

Abstract

Coverage of Russia in western newspapers leaves an overriding impression that the place is corrupt and doomed. Economists and pundits have focused on corruption, and the lack of the rule of law as the main causes of last year's crash. These structural problems definitely exist and they are indeed serious. But they also existed and were serious when the stock market was booming in 1996-1997 on the perceived success of Russian reforms. In fact, focus on these two problems neither explains the crash nor the real news of recent months - that production in Russia is steadily growing for the first time in a decade. The reason for this turnaround is the collapse of the rouble, which freed industry from the uncompetitiveness of the former exchange rate. The August 17 debacle is turning out to be salvation of Russian industry. The depression of Russia's heartland in 1995-1998 was largely caused by the very success of stabilisation. To bring down rampant inflation the exchange rate was pegged. As a result inflation was swiftly reduced in 1996 and consumption and financial booms in 1997 triggered a small growth blip, but industry sank further into its depressive mire. While stock markets went from high to high the real economy was suffering from Russia's version of the Dutch Disease. The commodity-based export sector prospered, largely freed from the subsidisation role of Soviet times, but Russian manufacturing went from bad to worse. Companies made more losses and in order to survive they failed to pay tax, wage and supplier bills, and turned to barter. While corruption, tax avoidance and plain stealing by management were - and are - pervasive, they alone do not suffice to explain the growth of these virtual phenomena during the stabilisation period. Post-crash, things are different. Federal tax revenues are up which has allowed the government to start paying off some of its outstanding arrears. In the private sector profits, cash-flow, and order book levels are up, while barter and wage arrears are down. With a competitive exchange rate the Russian economy is reviving for the first time in decades. Russia's transformation into a market economy, however flawed, is bearing some fruit. Provided there is no fast real appreciation and no major political upheaval, there is nothing to suggest that the Russian economy will not keep on growing. But although denouncing corruption might help to foster positive change, blaming it for the crash (and for the West's loss of Russia) provides precious little insight. Straight exchange rate economics goes much further in explaining why Russia continued to decline after stabilising in 1995, and why it is growing now.