Russia’s experience of foresight implementation in global value chain research

Tatiana A Meshkova,Evgenii Ia Moiseichev

doi:10.1186/s13731-016-0039-7

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to analyse the scope for improving empirical and methodological foundation of global value chain (GVC) research and for making relevant political decisions, primarily through application of foresight methodology based on the latest trend to combine the approaches of global value chain and national innovation system research. The authors choose Russia as an illustrative case of an economy in the changing geopolitical context to review major trends of global value chains’ development, specific features of Russia’s participation in them, and the necessary steps to increase the quality and efficiency of this participation. Special attention was paid to theoretical, methodological, and empirical tools of GVC research and of making relevant political decisions—which presently are far from being adequate: they need to be supplemented with the new ones to improve the forecasting potential and practical and strategic orientation of the GVC approach. To this end, approaches which would make it possible to research interconnection between global processes and trends with regional and national innovation-based development tendencies become of crucial importance. Application of foresight methodology may significantly contribute to researching the GVC phenomenon, being a major logical step towards creating advanced policy tools to mobilise available resources and coordinate stakeholders’ actions to increase Russia’s global competitiveness. The paper presents a number of case studies which describe practical application of various foresight methodology components to analyse Russian participation in various GVCs, by the examples of specific product and service groups (fresh fruit and vegetables, car parts, mobile phones, air transport, electronic payment systems). The authors conclude that both full-scale foresight studies and specific components thereof could be applied for the purposes of GVC analysis, strategic planning, and making political decisions.

Highlights

Global value chains (GVCs) have become a key element of the world economy (OECD, 2013a)
The objective of this paper is to analyse the scope for improving empirical and methodological foundation of global value chains (GVCs) research and for making relevant political decisions, primarily through application of foresight methodology based on the latest trend to combine the approaches of global value chain and national innovation systems research
Being a relatively new but increasingly common phenomenon, GVCs are subjected to in-depth analysis by leading international organisations including the OECD, the UNCTAD, the WTO, and the G20, to identify their potential positive and negative effects on the global economy and economies of particular countries

Summary

Introduction

Global value chains (GVCs) have become a key element of the world economy (OECD, 2013a). Developed and developing countries alike participate in them, regardless of technological level and per capita income. This determines the global community’s keen interest in understanding the structure of global trade in terms of value added and value chains, and identifying existing and potential opportunities for companies’ integrating into them, both on the national and industry-specific levels (Kaplinsky, 2013). The objective is to analyse the scope for improving empirical and methodological foundation of global value chains (GVCs) research and for making relevant political decisions, primarily through application of foresight methodology components to certain industries (specific product and service groups), and identifying their innovation aspects and the role of R&D

Objectives

Methods

Findings

Conclusion