Abstract
Significance The operation has in any case reached an impasse. By sending troops first to Manbij and then to Afrin, Russia has blocked Turkey’s military options in Syria. Syria’s Kurds are shielded from Turkish attacks, and Turkey is excluded from a place in international coalition operations against Islamic State (IS) in Raqqa. Impacts Any hopes Turkey may have had of Russia as a close regional ally and partner are dashed. Ankara cannot afford another outright breach with Moscow, either politically or economically. Turkey may retain control of a strip of northern Syria as a ‘safe zone’.
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