Russian-Japan trade and economic relations: Complicated history and foggy prospects

Abstract

The article considers the stages of formation and development of economic relations between the USSR/Russia and Japan. Within the period of the 1960s – 2021, four main stages were distinguished, differing in the forms, scale, and institutional framework of interactions: 1960s – 1980s, late 1980s – first half of the 1990s, second half of the 1990s – first half of the 2000s, the second half of the 2000s – 2021. It is shown how the sanctions against the Russian Federation introduced in 2022 affected the scale and prospects of economic interactions. The change in the model of bilateral interactions is analyzed: from trade and credit relations at the first stage to Japan's trade and investment expansion, which is characteristic of the fourth stage, while the export specialization of Russia and its Far East, based on the natural advantages of raw materials, continues. The main forms of origin and further development of mutual trade are described, starting with “small or coastal” trade and compensatory agreements and ending with spatial maneuvering and energy projects. It is argued that the general content of bilateral interactions at all stages is the formation in the Far East, as the dominant development strategy, of the concentration of economic resources in natural resource sectors and the formation on this basis of an export base oriented towards Japan as the basis for economic development. This strategy was increasingly formed as one of the most important components of economic policy both in the USSR and in Russia. The article upholds the thesis about the deepening of the gap between the Russian and Japanese economies, which are increasingly functioning within the framework of different structural and technological systems, which determines the modern scale, nature, and dynamics of mutual trade and economic interactions. The main structural and dynamic trends of exports and imports, stages and features of the organization of interactions in 1991–2021 are analyzed, as well as the features of investment cooperation. Modern problems of investment and trade relations are considered in connection with the introduction of packages of sanctions by Japan against the Russian economy and the Russian counter-sanctions.